Secret Hitler Probability Tables
Secret Hitler Player Probabilities
Player Count |
Liberal Count |
Fascist Count |
Hitler Count |
P(Liberal) |
P(Fascist) |
P(Hitler) |
P(Hitler | Fascist) |
5 |
3 |
1 |
1 |
60% |
20% |
20% |
50% |
6 |
4 |
1 |
1 |
66.67% |
16.67% |
16.67% |
50% |
7 |
4 |
2 |
1 |
57.14% |
28.57% |
14.29% |
33.33% |
8 |
5 |
2 |
1 |
62.5% |
25% |
12.5% |
33.33% |
9 |
5 |
3 |
1 |
55.56% |
33.33% |
11.11% |
25% |
10 |
6 |
3 |
1 |
60% |
30% |
10% |
25% |
Secret Hitler Policy Card Draw Probabilities
Fascist Cards |
Liberal Cards |
Total Cards |
P(FFF) |
P(FFL) |
P(FLL) |
P(LLL) |
∃xP(L) |
P(F Top Card) |
P(L Top Card) |
11 |
6 |
17 |
24.26% |
48.53% |
24.26% |
2.94% |
75.74% |
64.71% |
35.29% |
11 |
5 |
16 |
29.46% |
49.11% |
19.64% |
1.79% |
70.54% |
68.75% |
31.25% |
10 |
6 |
16 |
21.43% |
48.21% |
26.79% |
3.57% |
78.57% |
62.5% |
37.5% |
11 |
4 |
15 |
36.26% |
48.35% |
14.51% |
0.88% |
63.74% |
73.33% |
26.67% |
10 |
5 |
15 |
26.37% |
49.45% |
21.98% |
2.2% |
73.63% |
66.67% |
33.33% |
9 |
6 |
15 |
18.46% |
47.47% |
29.67% |
4.4% |
81.54% |
60% |
40% |
11 |
3 |
14 |
45.33% |
45.33% |
9.07% |
0.27% |
54.67% |
78.57% |
21.43% |
10 |
4 |
14 |
32.97% |
49.45% |
16.48% |
1.1% |
67.03% |
71.43% |
28.57% |
9 |
5 |
14 |
23.08% |
49.45% |
24.73% |
2.75% |
76.92% |
64.29% |
35.71% |
8 |
6 |
14 |
15.38% |
46.15% |
32.97% |
5.49% |
84.62% |
57.14% |
42.86% |
11 |
2 |
13 |
57.69% |
38.46% |
3.85% |
0% |
42.31% |
84.62% |
15.38% |
10 |
3 |
13 |
41.96% |
47.2% |
10.49% |
0.35% |
58.04% |
76.92% |
23.08% |
9 |
4 |
13 |
29.37% |
50.35% |
18.88% |
1.4% |
70.63% |
69.23% |
30.77% |
8 |
5 |
13 |
19.58% |
48.95% |
27.97% |
3.5% |
80.42% |
61.54% |
38.46% |
7 |
6 |
13 |
12.24% |
44.06% |
36.71% |
6.99% |
87.76% |
53.85% |
46.15% |
11 |
1 |
12 |
75% |
25% |
0% |
0% |
25% |
91.67% |
8.33% |
10 |
2 |
12 |
54.55% |
40.91% |
4.55% |
0% |
45.45% |
83.33% |
16.67% |
9 |
3 |
12 |
38.18% |
49.09% |
12.27% |
0.45% |
61.82% |
75% |
25% |
8 |
4 |
12 |
25.45% |
50.91% |
21.82% |
1.82% |
74.55% |
66.67% |
33.33% |
7 |
5 |
12 |
15.91% |
47.73% |
31.82% |
4.55% |
84.09% |
58.33% |
41.67% |
6 |
6 |
12 |
9.09% |
40.91% |
40.91% |
9.09% |
90.91% |
50% |
50% |
11 |
0 |
11 |
100% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
100% |
0% |
10 |
1 |
11 |
72.73% |
27.27% |
0% |
0% |
27.27% |
90.91% |
9.09% |
9 |
2 |
11 |
50.91% |
43.64% |
5.45% |
0% |
49.09% |
81.82% |
18.18% |
8 |
3 |
11 |
33.94% |
50.91% |
14.55% |
0.61% |
66.06% |
72.73% |
27.27% |
7 |
4 |
11 |
21.21% |
50.91% |
25.45% |
2.42% |
78.79% |
63.64% |
36.36% |
6 |
5 |
11 |
12.12% |
45.45% |
36.36% |
6.06% |
87.88% |
54.55% |
45.45% |
5 |
6 |
11 |
6.06% |
36.36% |
45.45% |
12.12% |
93.94% |
45.45% |
54.55% |
10 |
0 |
10 |
100% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
100% |
0% |
9 |
1 |
10 |
70% |
30% |
0% |
0% |
30% |
90% |
10% |
8 |
2 |
10 |
46.67% |
46.67% |
6.67% |
0% |
53.33% |
80% |
20% |
7 |
3 |
10 |
29.17% |
52.5% |
17.5% |
0.83% |
70.83% |
70% |
30% |
6 |
4 |
10 |
16.67% |
50% |
30% |
3.33% |
83.33% |
60% |
40% |
5 |
5 |
10 |
8.33% |
41.67% |
41.67% |
8.33% |
91.67% |
50% |
50% |
4 |
6 |
10 |
3.33% |
30% |
50% |
16.67% |
96.67% |
40% |
60% |
9 |
0 |
9 |
100% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
100% |
0% |
8 |
1 |
9 |
66.67% |
33.33% |
0% |
0% |
33.33% |
88.89% |
11.11% |
7 |
2 |
9 |
41.67% |
50% |
8.33% |
0% |
58.33% |
77.78% |
22.22% |
6 |
3 |
9 |
23.81% |
53.57% |
21.43% |
1.19% |
76.19% |
66.67% |
33.33% |
5 |
4 |
9 |
11.9% |
47.62% |
35.71% |
4.76% |
88.1% |
55.56% |
44.44% |
4 |
5 |
9 |
4.76% |
35.71% |
47.62% |
11.9% |
95.24% |
44.44% |
55.56% |
3 |
6 |
9 |
1.19% |
21.43% |
53.57% |
23.81% |
98.81% |
33.33% |
66.67% |
8 |
0 |
8 |
100% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
100% |
0% |
7 |
1 |
8 |
62.5% |
37.5% |
0% |
0% |
37.5% |
87.5% |
12.5% |
6 |
2 |
8 |
35.71% |
53.57% |
10.71% |
0% |
64.29% |
75% |
25% |
5 |
3 |
8 |
17.86% |
53.57% |
26.79% |
1.79% |
82.14% |
62.5% |
37.5% |
4 |
4 |
8 |
7.14% |
42.86% |
42.86% |
7.14% |
92.86% |
50% |
50% |
3 |
5 |
8 |
1.79% |
26.79% |
53.57% |
17.86% |
98.21% |
37.5% |
62.5% |
2 |
6 |
8 |
0% |
10.71% |
53.57% |
35.71% |
100% |
25% |
75% |
7 |
0 |
7 |
100% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
100% |
0% |
6 |
1 |
7 |
57.14% |
42.86% |
0% |
0% |
42.86% |
85.71% |
14.29% |
5 |
2 |
7 |
28.57% |
57.14% |
14.29% |
0% |
71.43% |
71.43% |
28.57% |
4 |
3 |
7 |
11.43% |
51.43% |
34.29% |
2.86% |
88.57% |
57.14% |
42.86% |
3 |
4 |
7 |
2.86% |
34.29% |
51.43% |
11.43% |
97.14% |
42.86% |
57.14% |
2 |
5 |
7 |
0% |
14.29% |
57.14% |
28.57% |
100% |
28.57% |
71.43% |
1 |
6 |
7 |
0% |
0% |
42.86% |
57.14% |
100% |
14.29% |
85.71% |
6 |
0 |
6 |
100% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
100% |
0% |
5 |
1 |
6 |
50% |
50% |
0% |
0% |
50% |
83.33% |
16.67% |
4 |
2 |
6 |
20% |
60% |
20% |
0% |
80% |
66.67% |
33.33% |
3 |
3 |
6 |
5% |
45% |
45% |
5% |
95% |
50% |
50% |
2 |
4 |
6 |
0% |
20% |
60% |
20% |
100% |
33.33% |
66.67% |
1 |
5 |
6 |
0% |
0% |
50% |
50% |
100% |
16.67% |
83.33% |
0 |
6 |
6 |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
100% |
0% |
100% |
5 |
0 |
5 |
100% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
100% |
0% |
4 |
1 |
5 |
40% |
60% |
0% |
0% |
60% |
80% |
20% |
3 |
2 |
5 |
10% |
60% |
30% |
0% |
90% |
60% |
40% |
2 |
3 |
5 |
0% |
30% |
60% |
10% |
100% |
40% |
60% |
1 |
4 |
5 |
0% |
0% |
60% |
40% |
100% |
20% |
80% |
0 |
5 |
5 |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
100% |
0% |
100% |
4 |
0 |
4 |
100% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
100% |
0% |
3 |
1 |
4 |
25% |
75% |
0% |
0% |
75% |
75% |
25% |
2 |
2 |
4 |
0% |
50% |
50% |
0% |
100% |
50% |
50% |
1 |
3 |
4 |
0% |
0% |
75% |
25% |
100% |
25% |
75% |
0 |
4 |
4 |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
100% |
0% |
100% |
3 |
0 |
3 |
100% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
100% |
0% |
2 |
1 |
3 |
0% |
100% |
0% |
0% |
100% |
66.67% |
33.33% |
1 |
2 |
3 |
0% |
0% |
100% |
0% |
100% |
33.33% |
66.67% |
0 |
3 |
3 |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
100% |
0% |
100% |